Computer Vision shows Burrow was the most efficient on off-platform throws (when his legs weren't set before releasing the ball) with a 100.1 passer rating. When he had a time to throw of 2.5-plus seconds, Burrow posted an NFL-best 111.6 passer rating. He also led the league in completion percentage (64.3) and yards per attempt (9.7) when under pressure. In 2021, Burrow's completion percentage over expected was +6.0 - the highest in the NFL, per NGS. Well, Burrow crushed my model last season, and the Bengals addressed the O-line this offseason. My models were quite bearish on their O-line, especially with Joe Burrow coming off the kind of major knee surgery that typically causes quarterbacks to play more conservatively, at least in the early goings. In this file one year ago, the Bengals just missed the cut, as my No. With increased O-line potential and added RB depth, Keenan Allen, Williams and Ekeler forecast to be in more favorable situations - a scary thought for opponents, given how productive each already was. The Bolts also nabbed RB Isaiah Spiller in the fourth round. In the draft, Los Angeles immediately boosted the offensive line in Round 1 with plug-and-play starter Zion Johnson before nabbing another versatile piece in sixth-rounder Jamaree Salyer, who could see some early action. Two more fun figures: Austin Ekeler had six rushing TDs against stacked boxes (tied for second-most, via NGS), while Mike Williams topped the league with 18 receptions and 320 yards on tight-window targets. With a time to throw of at least 2.5 seconds, Herbert topped the NGS charts in attempts (423), completions (262) and yards (3,544), while finishing second in touchdowns (24). Herbert's legs helped produce the fourth-lowest sack rate in the league (4.4%), but the Bolts' scheme helped him, too.
Last season, Justin Herbert racked up the third-most yards under pressure (1,043, by Next Gen Stats' count). The Chargers narrowly edge out the Bengals here, based on their offensive line and the fact that their demanding division will require prolific production. Diggs ranked in the top five in receptions (86), receiving yards (998) and TDs (eight) when aligned out wide last season, while Davis set a single-season NGS record with a 90 percent catch rate on passes of 10-plus air yards. Adding depth to the skill positions also gives Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis and Dawson Knox even better opportunities in the pass-catching game. Maybe that's why he's currently the odds-on MVP favorite over at Caesars Sportsbook at 7-1.īy selecting James Cook in the second round, Buffalo increased its overall rushing potential and gave Allen the opportunity for more designed runs, as opposed to scrambles. OK, a couple more Allen tidbits courtesy of NGS: He also earned +17 first downs over expected on rushes and +310 rushing yards over expected total, which was the second-most (only rushing champ Jonathan Taylor had more). The Bills quarterback piled up the most touchdowns on intermediate passes (19) and tied for the most deep completions (28 of 20-plus air yards).
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The free agency addition of Jamison Crowder and draft selection of Khalil Shakir help Buffalo's slot-production potential, giving defenders more players to account for and inherently opening up throwing lanes for Allen.
He also threw the second-most touchdown passes on tight-widow throws (eight, per NGS). The foundational piece, of course, is elite QB Josh Allen, whose pressure-evasion rate in 2021 ranked second-best in the NFL (24.3%, per Next Gen Stats). And that's despite the fact that the Bills will have a new play-caller in 2022, with Ken Dorsey promoted to offensive coordinator in the wake of Brian Daboll's departure to the Giants. After adding depth to the receiving corps and the backfield via free agency and the draft, Buffalo ranks No. The Bills earned my highest forecasted win total in the AFC at 11.6.
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